9 articles in this category
Here is a number that should make you uncomfortable: a 0.1 percentage point increase in the discount rate used by the U.S. Social Security trustees sh...
You've just shipped a model that nails the test set. RMSE down 12%. Leadership is happy. Then the market shifts, a regulation lands, or a sensor fails...
You are building a model that claims what the world will look like in 2073. Your stakeholders nod politely. Then someone asks: How do we know you are ...
Imagine a rural health district trying to plan for a potential hospital closure. They commission a predictive model that forecasts patient volume, sta...
Two years ago I sat in a room with a dozen ecologists and one community elder from a coastal village in Alaska. The ecologists were proud: a 50-year s...
Every six months, another long-term forecasting model hits output. Six months later, it's quietly retired. Not because it was off—but because it was b...
Every forecast is a bet. A decade-long forecast is a bet wrapped in layers of assumptions, compounding errors, and deferred reckoning. And yet, most a...
You trained a model on data from 2010–2020. It works beautifully. But now it's 2025, and the world has changed. Your training data is a historical art...
Nobody sets out to build a forecasting model that locks out the next generation. But that is exactly what happens when you choose a horizon that is ei...